How to get rich: getpoor.com [A MILLION DOLLAR MATRIX] LISTEN TO LOUIE: WEEK 7 (Analysis of College Football)

Press Release: 10.09.07
Las Vegas Insider
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A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HANDICAPPER

When things are going right - as predicted during the first four (4) weeks of college football - the life of a wagering professional is truly sweet.

When things go awry - such as the insanity of these past two weeks in college football - life suddenly becomes bittersweet.

So, how does a professional deal with it all?

They take the bitter *with* the sweet…

>>> To Join Listen To Louie - see the web address at the end of this analysis.

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In the early weeks of the college football season you can rely on defenses (historically) being stronger than offenses.

Talent rules in the first few weeks, as teams start developing personalities and tendencies emerge.

Typically (and historically) there is one (1) week in the season where there are a rash of upsets.

However, there has never (and I repeat never) been a plague of upsets like there have been in the past two (2) weeks.

What has happened these past two weeks is absolutely unprecedented in the long-storied history of college football.

Yes, there have been some unbelievable things happen in the past - but nothing even-comes-close to the bizarre unraveling of some teams in recent weeks past.

And so I keep the faith - confident that thorough research and analysis will (once again) rule the day.

Much like Vegas casinos bank on their odds of winning a calculated percentage of money at their table games (like blackjack, craps, roulette, etc).

That said, here are my opinions for what is to come:

----- TEAMS YOU CAN COUNT ON:

1) LSU: By far the best team in the country. LOTS of character and talent (on both sides of the ball) - and, most importantly - they are playing like a TEAM. There comeback win over Florida - with 5 of 5 fourth-down conversions in the second half - is proof of this teams character.

2) Ohio State: They may be young, but they are a tenacious young TEAM - with lots of character.

3) Cincinnati: Tons of talent, but TEAM-play is what carries them to victory. Best turnover margin in the country - with a *staggering* 25.

4) Boston College: Matt Ryan is a good quarterback and a great leader. BC will follow Ryan to an outstanding season.

5) South Carolina: Spurrier has himself a TEAM this year. Yes, they lost to LSU - who is simply a better TEAM.

Why do I say you can count on them?

Because they are playing consistently good football (week-end and week-out) and consistency shows the character of a football team (and what they are made of).

The operative word here (of course) is TEAM.

----- TEAMS YOU CANNOT COUNT ON:

1) Texas: Not even their talented QB McCoy can carry this football club (note the lack of the word team). Too many injuries, suspensions and off-field fiascos dont help.

2) Oklahoma: OU has (perhaps) the most-talent of any football
team in the country. Size and speed (on both sides of the ball), a bevy of highly-skilled (All-American type) receivers and running backs, along with a QB in Bradford that should annihilate any-team they would play.

Then WHY is Oklahoma suddenly floundering?
Because they simply cannot defend against the pass.
They WILL lose another game - to a lesser team with a passing attack (like Texas Tech - maybe even Oklahoma State).

3) USC: Too banged up with injuries and a damning loss in confidence in the last two weeks. Losing to STANFORD (are you KIDDING ME???). USC will lose one or two more games before this season is over (Oregon and Cal - both on the road).

----- TEAMS THAT ARE SCHIZOPHRENIC:

1) Clemson: Arguably has the-best running back tandem in the country - that is going no-where.

2) UCLA: First lost to Utah? Then bounces back to beat Washington, then Oregon State - then LOSE to Notre Dame??? This ballclub is all over the map (and needs some medication).

3) Georgia: This ballclub is on one of the wildest rides (and most unpredictable seasons) I have ever-seen. Who are these guys? I am steering WAY clear of Georgia from here on out.

4) Georgia Tech: This ballclub has a SERIOUS identity crisis on their hands. I am running the other way from the state of Georgia (which is in a state of confusion).

5) Kansas State: Whooped Texas, then bowed to Kansas (a good team, however). Problem is K-State cannot stop the run, and cannot run themselves. On both sides of the ball they are only fair to good, as well.

Why do I say they are schizophrenic?

Because you dont know which team (personality) is going to show up each week.

----- TEAMS TO JUST STAY AWAY FROM - PERIOD.

1) Oklahoma State: This ballclub is just a joke. They tackle like sissies and have NO character at-all. And a total lack of discipline - which I blame on Coach Gundy. If Oklahoma State can find a way to LOSE a game, they will search DESPERATELY to find a way to do so.

2) Nebraska: A pretender, not a contender (at-all). Black-shirts on defense? More like pink shirts.

3) Miami: These guys dont have an identity. They have left the building (with Elvis). Losing to North Carolina (33-27)? Come On.

4) Louisville: It doesnt matter if Louisville is capable of scoring 70 points a game - because their defense (or lack-of) will give up 75. Their band could probably play better defense.

----- TEAMS ON THE BUBBLE:

1) California: Yes, they are undefeated - and yes they beat Oregon. But, Oregon was their only real significant win (Tennessee was not, 45-31). They have given up a lot of points against some cupcakes - like winless Colorado State (in a very un-impressive win, 34-28) and Arizona (45-27). Yes, they have a potent offense, however their DEFENSE is suspect.

2) South Florida: Great Defense, Fair Offense. Playing as a team, but without a potent offensive attack they may face some trouble (read in Cincinnati). Ecked out (impressive) wins against Auburn (26-23) and recently West Virginia (21-13) - with their DEFENSE, not their offense. Great teams are balanced and South Florida is not.

3) Missouri: Why is Missouri not getting the love of an undefeated team? Because they dont really deserve it yet. There most-impressive wins are against Illinois (40-34) and Nebraska (41-6), the latter (of course) is not-that impressive. Lets see what they can do against Oklahoma…

4) West Virginia: Losing to South Florida was a real eye-opener when it came to the temerity of this team (and I still think they are a team). South Floridas stout-defense shut-down the vaunted running game of WV - and a litany of turnovers spelled disaster. Only Cincinnati poses a real threat to West Virginia (there is Cincy again!) Rutgers? Maybe

5) Connecticut: Undefeated? Yes. Played anybody? No. Virginia may pose a test for Uconn. Then its Katie Bar The Door! with South Florida, Rutgers, Cincinnati (keeps popping up!) - and West Virginia in the ensuing weeks.

6) Oregon: They do-have a dynamic offense that is putting up A LOT of points - and their only defeat was to California (in a hard-fought 31-24 loss). They will beat Washington State and then its Washington, USC and Arizona State. A brutal three-game stretch.

7) Florida: The reason I say Florida is a team on the bubble is because of its reliance on QB Tim Tebow. In todays college football, is-there a better natural-born leader than Tim Tebow? The answer is no. And therein lies the problem. As goes Tebow, so go the Gators. IF Tebow gets hurt (or too banged up) say Bye-bye to Florida.

8) Illinois: The Fighting Illini *are* the real-deal with back-to-back wins over Penn State (a good albeit conservative team) and Wisconsin (overrated, but still a good team). A re-ignited Michigan team may give them some trouble, and Ohio State will beat them (at Ohio State). Still, this is a *solid* TEAM and playing like one. Look for a 10-2 or 9-3 season out of them.

---------- And Thats a Wrap:

I started out doing this for you - then, as I got into writing this I (also) realized I was doing it for myself (as well).

After the past two weeks I guess I (too) needed some reaffirmation of my prediction skills - because what has recently happened HAS left me (and the entire wagering world) reeling.

Despite the INSANITY of these past two weeks I remain absolutely confident in my ability to predict (rationale) outcomes in college football games.

I have been doing it (successfully) year-end and year-out for over 10 years now - and I optimistic that the one-thing that pays off in all of this is knowledge.

Knowledge is Power - and if you do your homework (ie. my thorough research and analysis) - then you will pass the test of time.

Hang in there and dont panic.

Things will return to normal - history proves this to be true.

Wager Win,

Louie The LinesMaker

http://contrarytoordinary.com/listentolouie.html

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Louie is a member of The CTO Society and their Resident Expert on all aspects of College Football.

LinesMaker is the *official* sportsbook for The CTO Society.

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